AC Transit service to be cut by 31% of pre-2019 levels unless we pass the Connect Bay Area ballot initiative

Without new funding, AC Transit will cut up to 16.4% of bus service and lay off as many as 300 employees beginning in June 2027, according to new information released at the March Board of Directors meeting. Taken all together, new cuts would mean 31% less service compared to 2019 as the East Bay bus agency is currently running only 85% of pre-pandemic service levels. 

 
Riders wait at at an AC Transit bus stop waiting to get on the 57 bus as it pulls up.
 

Potential cuts are a result of the agency's projected $50 million long-term, structural annual deficit starting next year. The fiscal deficit is being driven by decreasing revenues from statewide, regional, and local sales taxes and rising operating expenses.

Help prevent cuts to AC Transit and transit across the Bay Area by gathering signatures to get the Connect Bay Area regional transit ballot initiative on the ballot. We need to gather 200,000 signatures before the end of May to get the funding measure on the November 2026 ballot.

 
A slidedeck from the AC Transit board meeting showing the operating deficit starting in Fiscal Year 2028 if no new funding is secured. Annual funding deficits range from $42.8 million to $53 million per year.

AC Transit, like many other transit agencies, face looming service cuts as state and federal support runs out (Source: AC Transit's Proposed Alternative Service Plan Framework).

 

Cuts were slated to start this year, but an emergency loan from the state government provides temporary funding to prevent cuts to AC Transit and other Bay Area transit through early 2027. A coalition of organizations, co-led by Seamless Bay Area, fought throughout 2025 for this loan to stave off one year of service cuts. Now we are striving to get the Connect Bay Area measure onto the ballot to avert long-term service cuts.

What cuts mean for riders 

The approved plan calls for minimizing complete elimination of entire lines, focusing cuts on span of service and frequency reductions, and maintaining the Realign network which was implemented in late 2025. No specific bus routes were identified for service reductions. However, frequency cuts would be targeted on lower ridership lines, ending early morning or late night service on lower-ridership lines, and eliminating segments of lines that are low-ridership.

 
A slidedeck from the AC Transit board meeting showing the lowest performing local AC Transit bus routes, based on passengers per revenue hour. The routes with the lowest ridership, in order, are the 281, 19, 251, 56, 239, 28, 46L, 216, 65, and more.

Lowest performing local AC Transit routes (Source: AC Transit's Proposed Alternative Service Plan Framework).

 

More specifically, the staff recommendations call for minimizing cuts to the Primary Route Network, which serve high-ridership lines, in high-density areas, and in areas with significant communities with low incomes and people of color. The lines in the Primary Route Network are the 1T, 6, 9, 12, 14, 18, 27, 30/31, 36, 40, 51A, 51B, 52, 54, 57, 62, 72/72M/72L, 73, 76, 88, 97, 210/211, F and NL.

Two alternative service plan frameworks were proposed: 

  • Scenario 1 identifies nearly a $37 million budget gap that would require an estimated 11.4% in service cuts and laying off 200 employees. 

  • Scenarios 2 identifies a $53 million budget gap with 16.4% cuts to service and 300 employees facing layoffs.

 
Data table visualizing the percent of service cuts and costs savings for each service type proposed under the two service cut scenarios.

Percent of service cuts and cost savings for each service type proposed under the two scenarios. Data from the AC Transit's Proposed Alternative Service Plan Framework.

 

60% of AC Transit riders are low-income, with household incomes of less than $50,000 – nearly 4 times as much as the overall Bay Area population. Moreover 77% of AC Transit riders do not have access to a household vehicle for their travel needs.

AC Transit's overall ridership is at 75% of pre-pandemic levels. Weekend service has fully recovered.

 
Line graph showing AC Transit ridership from June 2018 to March 2026. Ridership stands at 75% of pre-2020 levels.

AC Transit ridership has been steadily rising year-over-year, but is still at 75% of pre-2020 ridership (Source: AC Transit Ridership Performance).

 

The draft service plan will be presented at the June 10th Board of Directors meeting.

Cuts are preventable

We can prevent cuts to AC Transit and transit across the Bay Area by passing the Connect Bay Area transit funding measure at the November 2026 election. But that requires a lot of work: we need to collect 200,000 signatures by July to qualify for the ballot, and then win at the ballot box in November. To win this campaign, we need people like you to gather signatures at upcoming events and get involved in this campaign in any way you can. 

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Kaleo Mark